TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 16, 2021


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2021/06/15/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-june-15-2021/

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been reversing around the shorter-term moving average.

Price continues to move within a consolidation area. Price action has recently formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows though, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7720 and 0.7765. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7675 and 0.7645.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is currently forecast to stay the same until 2024. Unemployment rates are expected to over coming months. An unemployment rate of 6% is expected for the end of 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected originally.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1800 & 1830 UTC today. The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0010 UTC. This is followed by Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. The EURGBP is moving within a large horizontal channel at 0.8570-0.8640. Price is slightly bearish on higher time-frames, signalling a potential downside move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been reversing around the longer-term moving average.

The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Recent price action is choppy and showing signs of indecision. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and beginning to move sideways.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2145, 1.2200, 1.2215 and 1.2245. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent lows at 1.2095.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected originally.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB have hinted at providing more economic stimulus, if needed.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1800 & 1830 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price closed below the horizontal channel support area and then swung lower, as suggested in our last analysis.

The GBPUSD has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady. Price is choppy.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.4120, 1.4190 and 1.4215. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 1.4085 and 1.4040.

The Bank of England (BOE) continue to keep rates at the record low at 0.10%. Recent economic figures have been more positive than expected. With the rollout of vaccines and the ease of lockdowns on the horizon, the BOE expect a strong economic rebound during 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected originally.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1800 & 1830 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.2170, 1.2130, 1.2120 and 1.2085. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2200.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected originally.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to improve from April 2021 but have confessed that there is a great deal of uncertainty around the current pandemic and the path to economic recovery and growth.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. US FOMC is scheduled for 1800 & 1830 UTC. The Governor of the BOC will speak at 2230 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been reversing around 0.8970 and 0.9005, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and move sideways. USDCHF is currently ranging between 0.8970 and 0.9005. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8935 and 0.8930. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9020, 0.9030 and 0.9050.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until 2022. The SNB are expecting economic growth from the 2nd quarter of 2021.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected originally.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1800 & 1830 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 110.20.

USDJPY is choppy but showing signs of a potential uptrend – price action has formed higher swing highs and lows and the moving averages are bullish.

Long opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the previous bullish channel, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 109.85, 109.30 and 109.20. A bullish move may find resistance around 110.20 and 110.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The US economy is bouncing back quicker than expected originally.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis, relative to other 1st world countries.

US FOMC is scheduled for 1800 & 1830 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the 38.2% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

GOLD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1867, 1875 and 1901. A bearish move could find support around 1852 and 1848.

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