TriumphFX Forex Analysis – CAD Pairs – January, February & March 2021


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.com/2020/09/30/triumphfx-forex-analysis-cad-pairs-october-november-december-2020/

AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCAD Daily Chart
AUDCAD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last CAD chart analysis, price closed below the range support area and then was bearish.

AUDCAD has since reversed around the daily longer-term moving average and has been bullish. Price is currently testing a daily horizontal channel resistance area. The daily moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that AUDCAD could break higher.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the 4 hourly and daily moving averages, if price closes above the daily range resistance at 0.9655 and around the horizontal levels at 0.9470, 0.9245, 0.9010. AUDCAD may find resistance around the daily channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have lowered the interest rate to a record low of 0.10%. Unemployment levels are expected to remain high, currently forecast at 8%. The board believe that recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

CADCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

CADCHF Daily Chart
CADCHF 4 Hourly Chart

Price has continued to be indecisive and lack trend momentum.

On the daily time-frame, the CADCHF is consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle pattern and also moving within a number a horizontal levels. The daily moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price action has been forming higher swing highs and lows, suggesting that price could break higher.

The CADCHF is also looking indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the triangle consolidation pattern and if price moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6680, 0.6770, 0.6840, 0.6885, 0.7020, 0.7175, 0.7260 and 0.7435.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

CADJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

CADJPY Daily Chart
CADJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last CAD analysis, the CADJPY has been finding resistance around 0.8185.

Price was showing signs of a potential downtrend but is now looking indecisive. The CADJPY has formed a large horizontal channel on the daily time-frame at 78.00-81.85. The moving averages are moving sideways and are tight, confirming the market indecision.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is up-trending. The 4 hour moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the daily horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 84.50. A break to the downside may find support around 74.80. Buying opportunities could exist around the 4 hour support areas.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis, relative to other 1st world countries.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

USDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

USDCAD Daily Chart
USDCAD 4 Hourly Chart

USDCAD has been bearish.

The daily chart is showing a clear downtrend. Price is moving within a bearish channel and currently testing the channel support area. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Price is also down-trending on the 4 hour chart.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the 4 hour trend resistance area, the daily bearish channel resistance area, around the 4 hour and daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.3165, 1.3385 and 1.3690. USDCAD could stall or reverse around the daily bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Economic figures will likely continue to give choppy indicators, depending on the spread and restrictions of COVID-19. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Federal Reserve have stated that the health risks associated with COVID will continue to weigh on economic activity, inflation and employment. The current rate is set at 0.25% (record lows). The Fed have suggested that rates may remain low until economic indicators show satisfactory improvement.

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