TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 19, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD is in a retrace move.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area, around the horizontal resistance at 0.7185, and around the longer-term moving average. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.7065 and 0.7010.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1200 UTC today. The RBA will release monetary policy meeting minutes at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURGBP reversed around the bearish channel resistance area.

Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. EURGBP could start ranging between 0.9015 and 0.9090.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9090, 0.9120 and 0.9155. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.9015 and around the bearish channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.

The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

EURUSD is currently bullish. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and lows, suggesting that EURUSD may start up-trending. The moving averages are bearish though, signalling potential downside. Price continues to have no clear market direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal support and resistance and around the horizontal levels at 1.1695, 1.1735, 1.1760 and 1.1830.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1200 UTC today.

GBPUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area.

GBPUSD is indecisive and is moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.2865 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3070. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. GBPUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.2815.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1200 UTC today.

USDCAD

The USDCAD has been bearish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently attempting to swing lower. The moving averages are bullish though, signalling that downside momentum may be weakening.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal level at 1.3250. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the longer-term moving average and around the recent lows at 1.3105.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1200 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has reversed around the trend resistance area.

Price is down-trending but is currently indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The USDCHF is ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.9120 and 0.9165.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.9085. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9185, 0.9210 and 0.9240.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1200 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around 105.45, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

The USDJPY is indecisive. Price is looking choppy and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. The USDJPY is ranging between 105.20 and 105.45.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 105.05. A break to the upside may find resistance around 105.60 and 105.80.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1200 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing around the bullish channel support area and the horizontal resistance at 1912.

GOLD is up-trending longer-term but is currently indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1890-1912. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1883 and 1876. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1931.

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