TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 16, 2020
AUDUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.
The AUDUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price recent broke key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the trend could continue. The AUDUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.
Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7100, 0.7185 and 0.7205. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 0.7010.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP
Price has been finding resistance around 0.9075, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
The EURGBP is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is moving within a bearish channel. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling market indecision.
Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9120, 0.9155 and 0.9160. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent lows at 0.9015 and around the bearish channel support area.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.
The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding support around 1.1695.
Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lows, suggesting a downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. The EURUSD is looking a little indecisive though, suggesting that price could become choppy and move sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1615, 1.1680, 1.1725, 1.1760, 1.1780 and 1.1830.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been bearish.
Price is indecisive and is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.2865 and 1.3070. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.2815, 1.2785 and 1.2700.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the 61.8% Fib level and the horizontal level at 1.3250.
USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have become bullish, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower.
Selling opportunities may exist around the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal levels at 1.3250 and 1.3335. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1.3105.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF
Price has been finding resistance around 0.9150, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
USDCHF has been down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that USDCHF may attempt a bearish move.
Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9085, 0.9115, 0.9155, 0.9185, 0.9210 and 0.9240.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDJPY has been bearish.
Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.
Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 105.45, 105.60 and 105.80. A bearish move could find support around 105.05.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD
GOLD has reversed around the bullish channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price has been up-trending within a large bullish channel. GOLD is currently in a retrace phase and has become indecisive. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1890-1912. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and around the bullish channel support area. If price breaks to the downside of the horizontal channel, GOLD may find support around the horizontal support levels at 1883 and 1876. If price breaks to the upside, GOLD may find resistance around 1931.
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