TriumphFX Forex Analysis – USD Pairs – October, November & December 2020


AUDUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDUSD – Daily Chart
AUDUSD – 4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD has been bullish and has formed a swing higher, as suggested in our last USD analysis.

On the daily time-frame, price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the current trend may continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and price action has formed a number of potential resistance areas.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the daily longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7020 and 0.6665. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the 4 hour moving averages, around the 4 hour diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7210, 0.7335 and 0.7375.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

EURUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

EURUSD – Daily Chart
EURUSD – 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last USD chart analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

The daily time-frame is showing a clear uptrend. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The daily moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

On the 4 hourly time-frame, price is down-trending. EURUSD is moving within a bearish channel and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all suggesting that price may move lower before attempting another bullish move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the daily moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1615, 1.1400 and 1.1170. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the 4 hour bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1890 and 1.1945.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.

GBPUSD – Daily and 4 hour Charts

GBPUSD – Daily Chart
GBPUSD – 4 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish and has reversed around 1.3470, as suggested in our last USD chart analysis.

Price continues to look indecisive but the daily time-frame is showing signs of upside momentum – price action has formed higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The daily moving averages continue to move sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

On the 4 hour time-frame, GBPUSD is moving sideways and has formed a range at 1.2695-1.2975.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the daily trend support area, around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2695, 1.2305 and 1.2015. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2975 and 1.3470.

The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

USDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

USDCAD – Daily Chart
USDCAD – 4 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bearish and has recently reversed around 1.2960 (as suggested in our last USD Forex analysis).

USDCAD has been down-trending. Recent price action has been bullish though and price has swung above the trend resistance area, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend may be over. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways.

The USDCAD is up-trending on the 4 hour time-frame – price action has formed higher swing highs and lows. Price action has also formed a bullish channel and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the 4 hour moving averages and bullish channel support area, around the previous daily trend resistance (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3140, 1.3000 and 1.2960. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the 4 hour bullish channel resistance area, around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3635, 1.3690,1.3870 and 1.4195.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

USDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

USDCHF – Daily Chart
USDCHF – 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last USD analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.

On the daily time-frame, USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. Price is moving within a large bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, USDCHF is bullish and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are also bullish, suggesting that price could retrace further before attempting to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the daily bearish moving averages, around the daily bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9275, 0.9600 and 0.9840. An attempt to move lower could find support around the 4 hour bullish channel support area, around the daily bearish channel support area and around the recent lows at 0.9025.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

USDJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

USDJPY – Daily Chart
USDJPY – 4 Hour Chart

The USDJPY reversed around 106.20, as suggested in our last USD chart analysis.

Price has since been bearish and has formed a number of daily lower lows and lower highs – the USDJPY is down-trending. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

On the 4 hour chart, price is also down-trending.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 106.45, 107.00, 108.00, 109.60, 111.30 and 111.95. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 104.45, 104.10 and 103.05.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.

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