TriumphFX Forex Analysis – CHF Pairs – October, November & December 2020


AUDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCHF – Daily Chart
AUDCHF – 4 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

AUDCHF has become indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel on the daily time-frame (0.6435-0.6730). The daily moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Price is also indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame – AUDCHF is looking very choppy and is lacking clear trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the longer-term moving average and the lows at 0.5600. A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.6865.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

CADCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

CADCHF – Daily Chart
CADCHF – 4 Hour Chart

CADCHF reversed around the longer-term moving average and has been been bearish, as suggested in our last CHF chart analysis.

Price has been down-trending on the daily time-frame but is currently struggling to form a lower swing low, signalling that downside momentum is weakening. Price action has formed a tightening triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting market indecision. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady though, signalling a potential downside move.

CADCHF is looking choppy and indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation pattern, if price moves out of the pattern (break-out trade), around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6680, 0.6770, 0.6805, 0.6850, 0.6940, 0.7000, 0.7175, 0.7260 and 0.7440.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

EURCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

EURCHF – Daily Chart
EURCHF – 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex CHF analysis, price reversed around the daily moving average and then formed a bullish move.

The EURCHF is now looking indecisive on the daily time-frame. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1.0735-1.0845. The daily moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

The 4 hour time-frame shows a clear sideways consolidation. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel channel and if the EURCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.0875 and 1.1055. A break to the downside could find support around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.0615 and 1.0500.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.

GBPCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

GBPCHF – Daily Chart
GBPCHF – 4 Hour Chart

GBPCHF has been down-trending on the daily time-frame but is also looking a little indecisive. Price action has formed a slight bearish channel and the daily moving averages are bearish, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Price on the 4 hour time-frame is currently up-trending – price action has formed higher swing highs and lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening though, suggesting possible downside.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the daily bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1950, 1.2230 and 1.2810. A bearish move may find support around the 4 hour trend support area, around the bearish channel support area and around the horizonal support levels at 1.1680, 1.1600 and 1.1230.

The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

USDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

USDCHF – Daily Chart
USDCHF – 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last CHF analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.

On the daily time-frame, USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. Price is moving within a large bearish channel and is currently in a retrace phase. The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, USDCHF is bullish and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are also bullish, suggesting that price could retrace further before attempting to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the daily bearish moving averages, around the daily bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9275, 0.9600 and 0.9840. An attempt to move lower could find support around the 4 hour bullish channel support area, around the daily bearish channel support area and around the recent lows at 0.9025.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

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