TriumphFX Forex Analysis – CAD Pairs – October, November & December 2020

AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

As suggested in our last CAD analysis, AUDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price has been up-trending on the daily time-frame. Recent price action has formed a double-top reversal pattern and is now ranging between 0.9400-0.9660, suggesting that the uptrend could be over. The daily moving averages are still bullish though, signalling a bullish move.

On the 4 hour time-frame, AUDCAD is looking very choppy and indecisive. The 4 hour moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the daily range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9505, 0.9165 and 0.8845.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

CADCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

CADCHF reversed around the longer-term moving average and has been been bearish, as suggested in our last CAD chart analysis.

Price has been down-trending on the daily time-frame but is currently struggling to form a lower swing low, signalling that downside momentum is weakening. Price action has formed a tightening triangular consolidation pattern, suggesting market indecision. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady though, signalling a potential downside move.

CADCHF is looking choppy and indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation pattern, if price moves out of the pattern (break-out trade), around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6680, 0.6770, 0.6805, 0.6850, 0.6940, 0.7000, 0.7175, 0.7260 and 0.7440.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

CADJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

As suggested in our last CAD analysis, price reversed around 78.20 and the shorter-term moving average.

The daily time-frame shows a clear bullish move but overall CADCHF is looking indecisive. The daily moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a slight bearish channel.

The 4 hour time-frame shows a clear downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside direction could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizonal resistance levels at 81.40 and 81.80. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 78.00 and 74.80.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.

USDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

Price has continued to be bearish and has recently reversed around 1.2960 (as suggested in our last CAD chart analysis).

USDCAD has been down-trending. Recent price action has been bullish though and price has swung above the trend resistance area, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend may be over. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are moving sideways.

The USDCAD is up-trending on the 4 hour time-frame – price action has formed higher swing highs and lows. Price action has also formed a bullish channel and the moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the 4 hour moving averages and bullish channel support area, around the previous daily trend resistance (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3140, 1.3000 and 1.2960. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the 4 hour bullish channel resistance area, around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3450, 1.3500, 1.3635, 1.3690,1.3870 and 1.4195.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

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BYSamuel Morton ONSeptember 30, 2020 POSTED INDaily FX Analysis TAGGED AUDCAD CADCHF CADJPY USDCAD