TriumphFX Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – October, November & December 2020


AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCAD – Daily Chart
AUDCAD – 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex AUD analysis, AUDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price has been up-trending on the daily time-frame. Recent price action has formed a double-top reversal pattern and is now ranging between 0.9400-0.9660, suggesting that the uptrend could be over. The daily moving averages are still bullish though, signalling a bullish move.

On the 4 hour time-frame, AUDCAD is looking very choppy and indecisive. The 4 hour moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the daily range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9505, 0.9165 and 0.8845.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

AUDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCHF – Daily Chart
AUDCHF – 4 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

AUDCHF has become indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel on the daily time-frame (0.6435-0.6730). The daily moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Price is also indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame – AUDCHF is looking very choppy and is lacking clear trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the longer-term moving average and the lows at 0.5600. A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.6865.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

AUDJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDJPY – Daily Chart
AUDJPY – 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, price was bullish and swung higher.

The AUDJPY is clearly up-trending on the daily chart – price has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The daily moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision – the uptrend could becoming to an end.

The 4 hour chart shows a recent downtrend. The moving averages have crossed bearish and widening, suggesting that the downward direction could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels, around the 4 hour and daily moving averages and around the 4 hour diagonal resistance areas.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.

AUDUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDUSD – Daily Chart
AUDUSD – 4 Hour Chart

AUDUSD has been bullish and has formed a swing higher, as suggested in our last AUD analysis.

On the daily time-frame, price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the current trend may continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and price action has formed a number of potential resistance areas.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the daily longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7020 and 0.6665. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the 4 hour moving averages, around the 4 hour diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7210, 0.7335 and 0.7375.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

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