TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 16, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has reversed around the bullish channel support area and the moving averages.

Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. AUDUSD is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.7265, 0.7250 and 0.7200. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7335 and 0.7410.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

A US retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC is scheduled to release economic projections and a statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC. Australian employment and unemployment figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been bearish.

Price is currently in a retrace phase after forming a large bullish move. The moving averages are tightening and are about to cross bearish, suggesting that EURGBP could struggle to swing higher. Price action has formed a tight bearish channel.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9070, 0.9125, 0.9210, 0.9255 and 0.9280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.

The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 1.1825.

EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1755, 1.1785, 1.1815, 1.1825 and 1.1900.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.

A US retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC is scheduled to release economic projections and a statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price is struggling to swing lower, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GBPUSD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2765, 1.2910, 1.3025 and 1.3180.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.

A US retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC is scheduled to release economic projections and a statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area.

Price continues to be indecisive and move within a horizontal channel at 1.3135-1.3200. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel, around the diagonal support area and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3255. A break to the downside may find support around 1.3045 and 1.2995.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

A US retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC is scheduled to release economic projections and a statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF reversed around the tight bearish channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages continue to be bearish though, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9000, 0.9055, 0.9105 and 0.9195.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

A US retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC is scheduled to release economic projections and a statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has found support around 105.25.

The USDJPY is down-trending. Price has swung below the recent bearish channel, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential continued downside.

Selling opportunities could exist around the previous support area of the bearish channel, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 105.60, 105.80 and 106.25. The USDJPY may continue to find support around 105.25.

The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.

A US retail sales figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The FOMC is scheduled to release economic projections and a statement at 1800 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 1830 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the moving averages and around the trend support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1951, 1940 and 1911. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1970 and 1992.

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