TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 03, 2020
AUDUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the 38.2% Fib level.
The AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have just crossed bearish, suggesting that price could struggle to swing higher.
Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.7270 and 0.7210. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent highs at 0.7410.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.
EURGBP
Price has been bearish and has moved lower, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
The EURGBP is clearly down-trending. Price is moving within a clear bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue. The EURGBP is starting to look a little over-extended on higher time-frames though, signalling that a bullish retrace move may be due.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8910 and 0.8965. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.
The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.
The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1400 UTC today.
EURUSD
The EURUSD has been bearish.
Price has moved below all key Fib levels and the moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that the recent uptrend is over. The EURUSD is now looking indecisive. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames – providing no indication of future price direction.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1760, 1.1785 and 1.1995.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.
A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been bearish.
Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price action is looking bullish on both shorter and higher time-frames, signalling that the GBPUSD may attempt to swing higher.
Long opportunities could exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3255. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the most recent swing high at 1.3470.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.
A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today. The Governor of the BOE will speak at the same time.
USDCAD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish.
USDCAD was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. Price has formed a potential bullish channel and the moving averages are becoming bullish, all signalling that USDCAD could start up-trending.
Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3045 and 1.2995. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3110, 1.3140 and 1.3235.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.
USDCHF
Price is finding resistance around 0.9135, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
USDCHF continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9000, 0.9060, 0.9070, 0.9135 and 0.9150.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.
USDJPY
USDJPY continues to be indecisive.
Price is moving within a large horizontal channel at 105.15-107.00. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.
A US non-manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.
XAUUSD
GOLD has been bearish.
Price continues to be indecisive though and is overall moving sideways. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways also – confirming the current indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1879, 1908, 1911, 1954, 1992 and 2014.
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