TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 27, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

Price is up-trending again within the large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.7210. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.7270 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1310 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP is finding support around 0.8950, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending but currently struggling to swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the current trend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. EURGBP could continue to find support around 0.8950.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to find resistance around 1.1845.

EURUSD has been moving sideways. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1.1785-1.1845. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1880 and 1.1955. A break to the downside may find support around 1.1760 and 1.1715.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1310 UTC today.

GBPUSD

Price has been bullish.

GBPUSD is currently climbing but overall still looks indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3015, 1.3050 and 1.3255.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1310 UTC today.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD is finding support around the horizontal channel support area.

Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 1.3140-1.3235. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3265 and 1.3345.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1310 UTC today. The Governor of the Bank of Canada will speak at 1515 UTC.

USDCHF

The USDCHF reversed around 0.9120, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is indecisive but moving within a tight bearish channel and also a much larger bearish channel. The moving averages are crossing frequently, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9060, 0.9120, 0.9135, 0.9150 and 0.9195.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1310 UTC today.

USDJPY

Price has been bearish.

The USDJPY is looking indecisive again. Price has swung below the moving averages and the moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 105.15, 105.50, 105.70, 106.50 and 106.95.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1310 UTC today.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price broke below the range support area and then reversed around 1907.

GOLD continues to be indecisive and is now ranging between 1907 and 1954. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around 1879. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 2014 and 2047.

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