TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 26, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bullish channel support area and now is finding resistance around the range resistance area.

The AUDUSD is currently indecisive and ranging between 0.7140 and 0.7210. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are tight – confirming the market indecision. Price is also moving within a large bullish channel.

Trading opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.7270. A break to the downside could find support around 0.7115.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price reversed around 0.9040, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The EURGBP has been choppy but has also been bearish. Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, suggesting that price may start down-trending. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling that the EURGBP may become indecisive.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9040 and 0.9060. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.8970 and 0.8950.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding resistance around 1.1845.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1715, 1.1760, 1.1845, 1.1880 and 1.1955.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD has been bullish.

Price continues to lack trend momentum and be indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2985, 1.3015, 1.3050 and 1.3255.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal channel resistance area.

USDCAD continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3140-1.3235 and price is moving within the channel. The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3265 and 1.3345.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

Price continues to be indecisive.

USDCHF is choppy and lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Longer-term, price is moving within a large bearish channel.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the channel and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9060, 0.9120, 0.9135, 0.9150 and 0.9195.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY is currently bullish.

Price has been indecisive but has recently been bullish. USDJPY has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling that price could start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the potential upside.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.10, 106.00 and 105.70. A bullish move could find resistance around 106.95.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found support around 1916.

Price is indecisive and is forming a horizontal channel at 1916-1953. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1907 and 1879. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 2014 and 2047.

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