TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 19, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has been bullish and has swung higher.

Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that AUDUSD may start up-trending. Price action has formed a large bullish channel.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7185 and 0.7140. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the current resistance at 0.7255 and the bullish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has found support around 0.9000, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price was up-trending but has recently been bearish. EURGBP has closed below the bullish channel support area and the moving averages are crossing bearish, signalling that the recent uptrend could be over. Price could start ranging between 0.9005 and 0.9060.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous support area of the bullish channel, around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8970, 0.9005, 0.9060 and 0.9080.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

EURUSD has swung above the recent consolidation area, suggesting that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady. Price action has formed a bullish channel, EURUSD recently reversed around the channel resistance area.

Long opportunities could exist around around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1900, 1.1860 and 1.1790. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price closed above the range resistance area and has since swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GBPUSD is above the recent range and the moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price could start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3175, 1.3125 and 1.3085.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD was rejected around 1.3195 and has moved lower.

Price is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside direction may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3195 and 1.3265. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has found support around the bearish channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is slowly down-trending within a large bearish channel. The USDCHF is currently around the bearish channel support area.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 0.9120. Price could continue to find support around the channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to lack trend direction.

The USDJPY is indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 104.25, 105.15, 106.35 and 106.95.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the bullish channel resistance area.

GOLD is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that upside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1959, 1932 and 1908. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 2047 and 2070.

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