TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 14, 2020
AUDUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around 0.7185.
Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The AUDUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.7115 and the horizontal resistance at 0.7185. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the highs at 0.7240. A break to the downside could find support around 0.7080 and 0.7065.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.
The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP
The EURGBP continues to find resistance around 0.9055, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The EURGBP has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8970-0.9055 and price is moving within the channel. The moving averages are currently bullish and widening, suggesting that the EURGBP may attempt a bullish move higher.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9060, 0.9080 and 0.9135.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.
The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The EURUSD continues to move within a large horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD
Price continues to move sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
The GBPUSD is indecisive and moving sideways. Price is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.2985-1.3175. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.
The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD has been finding support around the bearish channel support area.
Price is down-trending – USDCAD has formed a short series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and price action has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.
Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3275 and 1.3345. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.
The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF
USDCHF has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9050, 0.9195 and 0.9225.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.
The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.
USDJPY is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.
Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.35 and 105.35. Price could continue to find resistance around 106.95.
The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD
Price has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average and the 50.0% Fib level, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
GOLD is possibly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that GOLD may attempt a bullish move higher.
Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1983 and 2047. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1879.
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