TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 13, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been rejected at 0.7185.

AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7080, 0.7115, 0.7185 and 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Governor of the RBA will speak at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP

Price has been finding resistance around 0.9055, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8970, 0.9055, 0.9060, 0.9080 and 0.9135.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has reversed off the horizontal channel support area.

Price continues to be indecisive, just like other FX pairs. EURUSD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has reversed around the horizontal channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. GBPUSD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.2985-1.3175. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GBPUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Price has been bearish.

The USDCAD has swung lower. Price is just below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDCAD may start down-trending. Price action has formed a potential bearish channel.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3275 and 1.3345. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

Price has been bearish.

The USDCHF is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9050, 0.9195 and 0.9225.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY is finding support around the shorter-term moving average.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 106.35. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 106.95 and 107.25.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

GOLD has found resistance around the 38.2% Fib level and the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1948 and 1983. A bearish move could stall or find support around the recent swing low at 1879.

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