TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 11, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 0.7180.

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7080, 0.7140, 0.7180 and 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has been bearish.

The EURGBP has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9040, 0.9055 and 0.9060. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD is reversing around the horizontal channel support area.

Price continues to be indecisive and move within the large horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. The moving averages are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.1540.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be very indecisive and move within the large horizontal channel at 1.2985-1.3175. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the GBPUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Price has been bearish.

USDCAD continues to lack trend momentum and be indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3395, 1.3450 and 1.3475.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be indecisive.

USDCHF is indecisive and has formed a large horizontal channel at 0.9050-0.9225. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if USDCHF moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY has been bullish.

Price continues to be very indecisive. USDJPY may start ranging between the recent swing low at 105.35 and the recent swing high at 106.35. The moving averages are bullish and steady though, suggesting potential upside.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 104.25, 105.35, 106.35, 106.70, 107.25 and 107.30.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD found support around the bullish channel support area.

Price has since been bearish though and is forming a large retrace move. GOLD has retraced below the bullish channel support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that the recent uptrend could be over.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 2046 and 2070. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1983, 1944 and 1913.

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