TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 10, 2020

AUDUSD

AUDUSD has been bearish.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7080, 0.7180 and 0.7240.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURGBP continues to be indecisive.

Price has become choppy and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the symmetrical triangle and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8985, 0.9040, 0.9055, 0.9060 and 0.9080.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

Price has reversed off the horizontal channel resistance area, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

EURUSD continues to be indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.1540.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price is moving within a horizontal channel.

GBPUSD is clearly indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2985-1.3175. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

The USDCAD has continued to be bullish.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The current retrace move is large and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that the USDCAD could struggle to swing lower – price could becoming indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3450 and 1.3475.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

The USDCHF continues to move within a large horizontal channel.

Just like other USD pairs, the USDCHF is indecisive. Price action has formed a clear horizontal channel at 0.9050-0.9225 and price is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

Price has been bullish.

The USDJPY has been bullish but is still looking indecisive. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 104.80, 105.30, 106.35, 106.70, 107.25 and 107.40.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed off the bullish channel resistance area.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has formed a bullish channel. GOLD is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that price may retrace lower. The moving averages are tightening, suggesting a lack of upside momentum.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1983, 1944 and 1913. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent swing high at 2070 and around the channel resistance area.

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