TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 07, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 0.7235.

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price has recently been testing the highs around 0.7235. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the AUDUSD may attempt to move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7080, 0.7180 and 0.7240. If price closes above 0.7240, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around 0.8985, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price action is forming a potential horizontal channel at 0.8985-0.9060. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9080 and 0.9135.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding resistance around 1.1900.

Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The EURUSD has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has started ranging, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is indecisive and is ranging between the recent swing low at 1.2985 and the highs at 1.3175. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

USDCAD is clearly down-trending within a large bearish channel. Price is currently in a bullish retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3450 and 1.3475. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the most recent swing low at 1.3240.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range support area.

USDCHF continues to be indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9050 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9225. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if USDCHF closes out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has reversed off 105.25, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 104.25, 104.80, 105.25, 106.35 and 106.70.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

US unemployment, average hourly earnings and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has continued to find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.

Price is clearly up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum could continue. GOLD is looking over-extended though and price is around the channel resistance area, all signalling that GOLD could form a bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1983, 1944 and 1913. Price could be rejected or reverse off the channel resistance area.

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