TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 04, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD reversed around 0.7065.

Price continues to look indecisive and lack trend momentum. Recent price action has formed a lower swing low though and the moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that AUDUSD could start down-trending.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages and around the highs at 0.7220. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.7080, 0.7065 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending but is currently struggling to swing lower – EURGBP is finding support around 0.8985. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.8985-0.9015. The moving averages are still bearish and widening though, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9025, 0.9060 and 0.9080. A bearish move may continue to find support around 0.8985.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.1700.

EURUSD is looking indecisive after a clear uptrend. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price could start ranging between 1.1700 and 1.1900.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.1540 and 1.1460.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

GBPUSD has been up-trending. Price has recently retraced below the bullish channel support area, suggesting that GBPUSD may struggle to swing higher. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight and moving sideways – signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support area of the previous bullish channel and around the highs at 1.3160.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed around the range resistance area.

Price is indecisive and has formed a clear horizontal channel at 1.3335-1.3450. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.3475 and 1.3500.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF reversed around 0.9225, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is clearly above the moving averages and has almost formed a higher swing high at 0.9225, signalling that the USDCHF may start up-trending. The moving averages are crossing bullish – confirming the potential upside.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9145 and 0.9060.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 105.60.

The USDJPY is now looking indecisive, just like other USD pairs. The moving averages are bullish and widening though, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 104.25, 104.80, 105.25, 105.60, 106.35, 106.70, 107.25 and 107.40.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the moving averages, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD has been up-trending but is currently struggling to swing higher. Price may attempt a bearish retrace move. The moving averages continue to be bullish and steady though, suggesting a potential bullish move higher.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the horizontal support levels at 1944 and 1913 and if GOLD closes above 1983. Price may continue to find resistance around 1983.

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