TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 03, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been finding support around 0.7120.

The AUDUSD has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Recent price action is looking indecisive – price is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The AUDUSD may start ranging between 0.7120-0.7220.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.7065 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has moved lower, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9025, 0.9060 and 0.9080. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 0.8940.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the EURUSD has entered a retrace move.

Price is clearly up-trending. The EURUSD is retracing after looking over-extended. The moving averages are starting to move sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1540, 1.1700 and 1.1900.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been finding support around the bearish channel support area, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2950 and 1.2895. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3160 and the bullish channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive.

USDCAD is lacking trend momentum and is currently looking indecisive. Price is ranging between 1.3335 and 1.3450. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are steady, suggesting that USDCAD may attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3475 and 1.3500.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently bullish.

USDCHF has been down-trending but is currently bullish and in a retrace move. Price has swung above the moving averages and the trend resistance area, suggesting that USDCHF could struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around 0.9225. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.9145 and 0.9060.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been very bullish.

Price was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. USDJPY has swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are crossing bullish, all signalling that the downtrend is over – price may start up-trending.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 105.60, 105.25 and 104.80. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 106.70 and 107.25.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, GOLD has been bullish.

Price continues to uptrend but is struggling to swing much higher – upside momentum is weakening – suggesting a potential bearish retrace move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages and the horizontal support levels at 1944 and 1913. Selling opportunities may exist around the horizontal resistance at 1983.

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