TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 16, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average.

AUDUSD is in a retrace move. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that AUDUSD may start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6990 and 0.6925. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent swing high at 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the 38.2% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

EURGBP is currently in a retrace phase but is attempting a bullish move. The moving averages are bullish and price action recent formed a higher swing high, all suggesting that EURGBP could start up-trending.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9000. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9105 and 0.9170.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official financing rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the bullish channel resistance area.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.1370. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.1440 and the channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The ECB will release a monetary policy statement and announce the official financing rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC. US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD is forming a lower swing low (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price is starting to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2450, 1.2470, 1.2510 and 1.2660.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The USDCAD has swung below the recent bullish channel support area. Price is now looking indecisive again (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. If the USDCAD closes below 1.3495, price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.3495, 1.3550, 1.3635 and 1.3650.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The USDCHF has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance area and is forming a higher swing high, signalling that price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area (as support), around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9430 and 0.9375. A bullish move could be stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9465, 0.9480 and 0.9525.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish and has found support around 106.70.

Price continues to downtrend within a bearish channel but is also potentially ranging between the horizontal support at 106.70 and the horizontal resistance at 107.40. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the support and resistance areas of the range and bearish channel.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

US retail sales figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been finding resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price continues to consolidate within a horizontal channel at 1793 and 1815. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support and reverse around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1788, 1776 and 1772.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/