TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 15, 2020

AUDUSD

AUDUSD has been bullish.

Price has swung above the recent consolidation area (horizontal channel), suggesting that the AUDUSD could start up-trending. The moving averages are signalling market indecision though – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6990 and 0.6925.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP is currently bearish.

Price has formed a large bullish move and is currently in a retrace move. Price action has formed a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the EURGBP may start up-trending. Price is indecisive and ranging on higher time-frames though, suggesting possible sideways price action.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9000. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9105 and 0.9170.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

Price is up-trending.

EURUSD has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows – price is clearly up-trending. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1370 and 1.1265. EURUSD could stall or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD is currently bullish.

Price has formed a lower swing low and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, suggesting that the GBPUSD may start down-trending. Price is looking a little indecisive. GBPUSD may start ranging between 1.2510 and 1.2660.

Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.2660. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2510, 1.2470 and 1.2450.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Price is currently in a bearish retrace move.

The USDCAD is up-trending and has formed a potential bullish channel. Price is ranging and indecisive on higher time-frames, signalling market indecision on the 1 hour chart. The 1 hour moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and could cross.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3550 and 1.3495. A bullish move could find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3635, 1.3550 and 1.3715.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The BOC will release a rate statement and announce the official rate at 1400 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF

Price is bearish.

The USDCHF is down-trending within a bearish channel. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside direction may continue. Recent price action is looking choppy and indecisive though. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9430, 0.9445 and 0.9465. A bearish move may find support around 0.9365 and around the channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

The USDJPY is currently bearish.

Just like USDCHF, USDJPY is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. Also like USDCHF, price is down-trending on higher time-frames but has recently shown signals of market indecision.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 107.40 and 107.75. A bearish move could find support around 106.70 and the channel support area.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

Price has been moving sideways.

GOLD was clearly up-trending but has recently formed a horizontal channel at 1793-1815 and is indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1788, 1776 and 1772.

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