TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 30, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel.

AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and move within a tight horizontal channel at 0.6845-0.6890. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6810 and 0.6785. A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6975 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has reversed around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

EURGBP is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and swing lows. EURGBP continues to move within a large bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside direction may continue. Price is around a key resistance on higher time-frames though, signalling that EURGBP may attempt strong bearish move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9075 and 0.9005. A bullish move may find resistance or become bearish around the recent highs at 0.9170 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD continues to be indecisive.

Price is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. EURUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1175, 1.1195, 1.1285, 1.1345 and 1.1390.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently attempting to move lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price action has formed a tight bearish channel. GBPUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2375, 1.2445 and 1.2530. Price may find support around the bearish channel support area.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Price has been moving sideways.

The USDCAD has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current bullish direction could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3650 and 1.3495. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3710.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

Price has been bullish.

The USDCHF has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance area and is forming a higher swing high, all suggesting that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and steady.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9500, 0.9440 and 0.9425. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9525 and 0.9545.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

The USDJPY has been bullish.

Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the USDJPY could start up-trending.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.45, 106.85 and 106.25. A bullish move could find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding support around the moving averages.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that GOLD may attempt to swing higher. Price may start ranging between 1750 and 1778.

Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1750, 1745 and 1733. A bullish move may reverse around the potential range resistance at 1778.

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