TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 29, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis. the AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction.

Price is moving sideways and has formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.6845-0.6890. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The AUDUSD is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.6810 and 0.6785. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.6975 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

The EURGBP closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).

Price is clearly up-trending. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the uptrend could continue. The EURGBP is now testing higher time-frame resistance though, signalling that price may soon attempt a bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9075, 0.9005 and 0.8980. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the bullish channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

Price has been bullish but continues to be indecisive.

The EURUSD is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1175, 1.1195, 1.1345 and 1.1390.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the shorter-term moving average.

The GBPUSD has been indecisive but now looks like it is down-trending again. The moving averages are bearish and steady – confirming the downside direction. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current direction could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2530.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).

Price is currently finding support around the shorter-term moving average (as also suggested). USDCAD has formed a higher swing high above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish, all signalling that price may start up-trending. USDCAD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a potential upside move.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.3615. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.3710.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCHF has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area.

Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. USDCHF is looking indecisive also though. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9500, 0.9525 and 0.9545. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9425 and 0.9380.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

Price continues to be indecisive.

USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal levels at 106.25 and 107.65. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend support area.

GOLD is clearly up-trending and is also up-trending on higher time-frames. Recent price action looks indecisive though. The moving averages confirm this – they have become very tight. GOLD could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1750 and 1778.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1750, 1745, 1733 and 1715. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 1778.

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