TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 26, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continues to be indecisive.

AUDUSD is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is also looking indecisive on higher time-frames, giving no clear indication of future trend direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6785, 0.6810, 0.6855, 0.6975 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has reversed around the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

EURGBP continues to be indecisive and range (0.9005-0.9075). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is nearing a key resistance on higher time-frames, signalling that EURGBP may soon attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.8980, 0.8940 and 0.8920. A break to the upside may quickly reverse and become bearish.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price is lacking momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1175, 1.1345 and 1.1390. If EURUSD closes below 1.1175, price could become bearish.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has been moving sideways.

Price continues to lack trend direction and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2340, 1.2530 and 1.2665.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Price has continued to move sideways (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

The USDCAD has been indecisive but has recently swung above a diagonal resistance area and is forming a higher swing high, suggesting that price could attempt to start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal support at 1.3495. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.3680.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the bearish channel resistance area.

The USDCHF is down-trending within a bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tight, suggesting market indecision. The USDCHF is down-trending on higher time-frames though, adding confidence to the potential downside move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9500, 0.9525 and 0.9545. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9425 and 0.9380.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

Just like most other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and moving sideways (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

USDJPY is moving sideways and is ranging between 106.25-107.65. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.25 and 107.65.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around 1759.

GOLD has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1759, 1745, 1733 and 1715. A bullish move may find resistance around 1778.

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