TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 23, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD continues to be indecisive.

Price is clearly lacking trend momentum and is moving sideways. The moving averages are also moving sideways and are crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6785, 0.6810, 0.6975 and 0.7025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

The EURGBP is up-trending.

Price is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the EURGBP could swing higher.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9020, 0.8980 and 0.8940. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9065.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 1.1280 and the bearish channel resistance area.

The EURUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are tight and becoming bullish though, suggesting that downside momentum may be weakening. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that the EURUSD may attempt a move higher.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1345 and 1.1390. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1280 and 1.1175.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

Price has been finding resistance around the bearish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

The GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, signalling market indecision. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2665. A bearish move could find support around the moving averages and around the recent lows at 1.2340.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD reversed around the range support area.

Price continues to range (1.3505-1.3620) and be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are crossing frequently. USDCAD is around the range support area and price action has formed a diagonal resistance area, suggesting that USDCAD may break lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the lows at 1.3360.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

USDCHF found support around the range support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price has since swung below the range support area and has formed a potential bearish channel, all signalling that USDCHF could start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and price is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9470, 0.9525 and 0.9545. A bearish move could find support around the bearish channel support area and around the lows at 0.9380.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the range support area.

USDJPY continues to be indecisive and range between the horizontal support at 106.65 and the horizontal resistance at 107.65. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

Price reversed around 1745 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1745, 1733, 1715 and 1707. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1759.

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