TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 22, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around 0.6915 and has been bearish.

AUDUSD continues to be indecisive but have some downward direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a diagonal resistance and AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, all suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7025, 0.6975, 0.6915 and 0.6785.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has been bullish and reversed around 0.9065 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).

EURGBP continues to move within a large consolidation area but is forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows – recent price action has been bullish. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the identified diagonal support and around the horizontal levels at 0.9000, 0.8980 and 0.8940. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9065.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish.

Price continues to downtrend within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. EURUSD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move higher.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1255, 1.1280, 1.1345 and 1.1390. A bearish move could find support or reverse around the recent lows at 1.1175 and around the channel support area.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).

Price is now in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that GBPUSD may attempt a move lower. Price is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1.2665. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.2340 and around the bearish channel support area.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range resistance area.

The USDCAD continues to be indecisive and move sideways. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3515 and 1.3620.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3680.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1500 UTC today.

USDCHF

Price continues to move sideways and be indecisive (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).

The USDCHF continues to range between the horizontal support at 0.9470 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9545. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9380. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9645.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal channel support area.

USDJPY is moving within a large horizontal channel at 106.65-107.65. The moving averages confirm the current lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently and are tight. USDJPY is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

Price closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis).

GOLD has swung higher and is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames too, adding confidence that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1745, 1733, 1715 and 1707. A bullish move may find resistance around 1758.

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