TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 19, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the tight range support area at 0.6845.

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 0.6845-0.6910 and also 0.6785-0.6975. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and crossing frequently. The AUDUSD has formed some lower swing highs, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the ranges and if the AUDUSD moves out of either range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price continues to move within the general consolidation area but recent price action has been bullish – the EURGBP has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8980, 0.8940 and 0.8920. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9035 and 0.9050.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the moving averages and has been bearish.

The EURUSD is down-trending within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1215, 1.1255 and 1.1345. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal level at 1.1090.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish.

The GBPUSD is forming a swing lower, creating a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2460 and 1.2665. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD has reversed around the range support and resistance areas.

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 1.3515 and 1.3610. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. USDCAD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3680 and 1.3820. A break to the downside may find support around 1.3360.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

Canadian retails sales is scheduled for 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF is indecisive and moving sideways (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

Price continues to range between the horizontal support at 0.9470 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9545. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9380. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9645.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY was bearish but has since reversed around the recent lows at 106.65.

Price is now moving within a large horizontal channel at 106.65-107.65. The moving averages confirm the current lack of trend direction – they have been crossing frequently. The USDJPY is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently finding resistance around 1733 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis).

GOLD is moving sideways and has formed a horizontal channel at 1715-1733. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1745. A break to the downside could find support around 1707 and 1694.

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