TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 18, 2020




AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is indecisive and has been moving sideways.

AUDUSD is still indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and also moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.6845 and 0.6910 but could also start ranging between 0.6785 and 0.6975. AUDUSD has been forming lower swing highs and has formed a diagonal resistance area, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the ranges and if AUDUSD moves out of either range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.7025. A break to the downside may find support around 0.6675 and 0.6575.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. EURGBP continues to be indecisive but recent price action has formed higher swing highs and lows, suggesting the start of an uptrend. The moving averages are still tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the diagonal support areas, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8980 and 0.8940. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9010 and 0.9050.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The BOE will release a monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC today.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish. Price is looking indecisive but has slight bearish direction. The moving averages are currently bearish, suggesting that EURUSD could move lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1345 and 1.1390. A bearish move could find support around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1215 and 1.1090.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. Price is giving mixed signal on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2460, 1.2665 and 1.2790.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The BOE will release a monetary policy summary and announce the official bank rate at 1100 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.3610.

The USDCAD is currently ranging between the horizontal support at 1.3515 and the horizontal resistance at 1.3610. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that the USDCAD could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3680 and 1.3820. A break to the downside could find support around 1.3360.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The USDCHF is also down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the long-term trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9545 and 0.9645. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9470 and 0.9380.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY broke below the range support area and then found support around the recent lows at 106.65.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 106.65, 107.05 and 107.65. If price closes below 106.65, the USDJPY could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1675, 1694, 1707, 1715, 1733 and 1745.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/