TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 17, 2020




AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

AUDUSD is currently moving sideways and looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and also moving sideways. Price may start ranging between 0.6785 and 0.6975. AUDUSD has been forming lower swing highs and has formed a diagonal resistance area, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.7025. A break to the downside may find support around 0.6675 and 0.6575.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1600 UTC today. Australian employment and unemployment figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price is choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. EURGBP is also indecisive on higher time-frames but is showing signs of potential downside.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8870, 0.8895, 0.8920, 0.9010 and 0.9050.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 1.1220-1.1390 and price is moving within the channel. EURUSD has also formed a potential bearish channel, suggesting that price may become bearish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal and bearish channels. A bearish move may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.1090 and 1.1025.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1600 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price is giving mixed signal on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2460, 1.2665 and 1.2790.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1600 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD has formed a short series of lower swing highs, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move. Price action is also forming a potential head and shoulder pattern, adding confidence that price may move lower. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3610 and 1.3680. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.3515 and 1.3360.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1600 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The USDCHF is also down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, signalling market indecision.

Selling opportunities may exist around the long-term trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9545 and 0.9645. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9470 and 0.9380.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1600 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 107.05-107.65.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the recent lows at 106.65.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1600 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1675, 1694, 1707 and 1745.

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