TriumphFX Forex Analysis – JPY Pairs – June & July 2020


AUDJPY Daily & 4 Hour Charts

AUDJPY Daily Chart
AUDJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last JPY chart analysis, price found resistance around 70.30. AUDJPY has since been bullish though and has swung higher.

Price has closed above a recent swing high on the daily time-frame, suggesting that the recent downtrend has come to an end. The daily moving averages signal indecision – they are moving sideways.

The AUDJPY is up-trending on the 4 hour chart. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 70.05, 67.35 and 64.90. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the daily highs at 80.30.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

CADJPY Daily & 4 Hour Charts

CADJPY Daily Chart
CADJPY 4 Hourly Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The CADJPY is now looking indecisive on the daily time-frame. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour chart – CADJPY has formed a series of clear higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the daily moving averages and daily levels. Opportunities to go long may exist around the 4 hour bullish moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 78.20 and 77.70. A bullish move higher could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 81.80 and 84.45.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

EURJPY Daily & 4 Hour Charts

EURJPY Daily Chart
EURJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last JPY chart analysis, price has become indecisive.

On the daily time-frame, EURJPY is looking choppy and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 114.65 and 124.05.

EURJPY is also looking indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages are also crossing frequently – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the 4 hourly and daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 114.65, 118.65, 121.00 and 124.05. If price closes above 124.05, EURJPY could attempt a bullish move higher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

GBPJPY Daily & 4 Hour Charts

GBPJPY Daily Chart
GBPJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last JPY chart analysis, price has been choppy and indecisive.

GBPJPY continues to range between the daily levels at 125.80 and 147.40. Recent price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows though, suggesting that the GBPJPY may start up-trending. The daily moving averages continue to signal indecision though – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a bullish channel.

The 4 hour time-frame is showing a clear uptrend. The moving averages are currently bullish and widening, suggesting that the GBPJPY may move higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the daily bullish channel support areas, around the dynamic support of the 4 hour moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 129.30 and 125.80. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area, around the daily longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 139.40, 141.00, 144.50 and 147.40.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

USDJPY Daily & 4 Hour Charts

USDJPY Daily Chart
USDJPY 4 Hourly Chart

The USDJPY is choppy and moving sideways (as suggested in our last JPY analysis).

Price is clearly indecisive and lacking trend direction on the daily time-frame. The daily moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

USDJPY is also looking indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame. Once again, the moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 103.05, 104.85, 106.20, 109.60, 111.30 and 111.95.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

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