TriumphFX Forex Analysis – EUR Pairs – June & July 2020


EURCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

EURCAD Daily Chart
EURCAD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last EUR chart analysis, the EURCAD has been finding support around the 50.0% Fib level.

On the daily time-frame, price action has formed a clear swing higher (March 2020) and has since been in a retrace phase. The daily moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that EURCAD may attempt to swing higher. Price is currently moving sideways though and is ranging between 1.5080 and 1.5495.

The 4 hour chart is also indecisive and ranging between the daily levels.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the daily shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.4910 and 1.4740. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.5845.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

EURCHF – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

EURCHF Daily Chart
EURCHF 4 Hourly Chart

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase.

The EURCHF has swung above the trend resistance and the moving averages on the daily time-frame, signalling that the downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are crossing bullish.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour chart. The 4 hour moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around dynamic support of the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the previous daily trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.0630 and 1.0510. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0880, 1.1050, 1.1160 and 1.1450.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

EURGBP – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

EURGBP Daily Chart
EURGBP 4 Hourly Chart

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction.

Price is moving within a large weekly horizontal channel at 0.8300-0.9320. The daily and 4 hourly moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8680, 0.8865 and 0.9015. If the EURGBP closes out of the weekly range, price may finally have some clear trend direction.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

EURJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

EURJPY Daily Chart
EURJPY 4 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last EUR chart analysis, price has become indecisive.

On the daily time-frame, EURJPY is looking choppy and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 114.65 and 124.05.

EURJPY is also looking indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages are also crossing frequently – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the 4 hourly and daily moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 114.65, 118.65, 121.00 and 124.05. If price closes above 124.05, EURJPY could attempt a bullish move higher.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

EURUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

EURUSD Daily Chart
EURUSD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last EUR chart analysis, the EURUSD was finding support around 1.0785 and is currently finding resistance around 1.1400.

Just like other EUR pairs, the EURUSD is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. Price is ranging on the daily chart between the lows at 1.0650 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1400. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Price has been up-trending on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1135 and 1.0990.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

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