TriumphFX Forex Analysis – CHF Pairs – June & July 2020

AUDCHF – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

As suggested in our last CHF chart analysis, price found resistance around 0.6430. AUDCHF has since been bullish though and has broken the resistance area.

The AUDCHF has swung above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening. Price action has not formed a higher swing high though, signalling that the downtrend may attempt to continue. The daily moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour time-frame and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the 4 hour channel support area and around the 4 hour moving averages. If AUDCHF breaks the bullish channel, price may attempt a bearish move lower. A bearish move could find support or reverse around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6225, 0.6135, 0.6070 and 0.5600.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

CADCHF – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

CADCHF continues to be in a retrace phase of a downtrend.

The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price action has formed a number of support areas below current price, suggesting that an attempt to swing lower may find support and even reverse.

On the 4 hour time-frame, CADCHF has been clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that there may be more upside to come.

Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term daily moving average, around the daily trend resistance area, the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal levels at 0.7260, 0.7435 and 0.7615. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the diagonal support levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.7050, 0.6960, 0.6885, 0.6810 and 0.6680.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

EURCHF – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

Price has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase.

The EURCHF has swung above the trend resistance and the moving averages on the daily time-frame, signalling that the downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are crossing bullish.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour chart. The 4 hour moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around dynamic support of the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the previous daily trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.0630 and 1.0510. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0880, 1.1050, 1.1160 and 1.1450.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

USDCHF – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

As suggested in our last CHF chart analysis, the USDCHF has continued to be choppy.

Price has also been bearish though and continues to move within a large daily bearish channel. The daily moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price has also been bearish and is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the 4 hour trend resistance area, around the daily bearish channel resistance and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9595, 0.9645, 0.9785, 0.9885 and 1.0005. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the recent lows at 0.9275 and around the daily bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

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