TriumphFX Forex Analysis – CAD Pairs – June & July 2020

AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

As suggested in our last CAD chart analysis, AUDCAD found resistance around 0.9145. Price has since been bullish though and has swung above the resistance area.

AUDCAD is above a key resistance area and is forming a higher swing high, suggesting that the recent downtrend is over – price is now up-trending. The daily moving averages are tightening and moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the 4 hourly and daily moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9185, 0.9145, 0.9080 and 0.9010. A bullish move could find resistance around the daily resistance at 0.9590.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

CADCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

CADCHF continues to be in a retrace phase of a downtrend.

The daily moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price action has formed a number of support areas below current price, suggesting that an attempt to swing lower may find support and even reverse.

On the 4 hour time-frame, CADCHF has been clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that there may be more upside to come.

Selling opportunities could exist around the longer-term daily moving average, around the daily trend resistance area, the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal levels at 0.7260, 0.7435 and 0.7615. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages, around the diagonal support levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.7050, 0.6960, 0.6885, 0.6810 and 0.6680.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

CADJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

Price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The CADJPY is now looking indecisive on the daily time-frame. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour chart – CADJPY has formed a series of clear higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the daily moving averages and daily levels. Opportunities to go long may exist around the 4 hour bullish moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 78.20 and 77.70. A bullish move higher could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 81.80 and 84.45.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

EURCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

As suggested in our last CAD chart analysis, the EURCAD has been finding support around the 50.0% Fib level.

On the daily time-frame, price action has formed a clear swing higher (March 2020) and has since been in a retrace phase. The daily moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that EURCAD may attempt to swing higher. Price is currently moving sideways though and is ranging between 1.5080 and 1.5495.

The 4 hour chart is also indecisive and ranging between the daily levels.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may stall or reverse around the daily shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.4910 and 1.4740. A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the recent highs at 1.5845.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

GBPCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

Just like other Canadian Dollar pairs, GBPCAD has been moving sideways and is lacking trend direction. Price continues to be indecisive (as suggested in our last CAD chart analysis).

The daily moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

GBPCAD is also looking indecisive on the 4 hour chart. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1.6855-1.7090.

Trading opportunities may exist around the daily moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.5875, 1.6610, 1.6855, 1.7090, 1.7665 and 1.7860.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

USDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

The USDCAD has formed a clear swing higher (March 2020) and has since been in a retrace phase.

Price has moved below both daily moving averages and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the USDCAD may become indecisive.

Price has been bearish on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages suggest that the downside momentum may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the daily and 4 hourly moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2960, 1.3345, 1.3865, 1.4190 and 1.4495.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

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