TriumphFX Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – June & July 2020




AUDCAD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCAD Daily Chart
AUDCAD 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, the AUDCAD found resistance around 0.9145. Price has since been bullish though and has swung above the resistance area.

AUDCAD is above a key resistance area and is forming a higher swing high, suggesting that the recent downtrend is over – price is now up-trending. The daily moving averages are tightening and moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the 4 hourly and daily moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9185, 0.9145, 0.9080 and 0.9010. A bullish move could find resistance around the daily resistance at 0.9590.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

AUDCHF – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDCHF Daily Chart
AUDCHF 4 Hourly Chart

Price found resistance around 0.6430 (as suggested in our last AUD chart analysis). AUDCHF has since been bullish though and has broken the resistance area.

The AUDCHF has swung above a number of key resistance levels and the moving averages, suggesting that downside momentum is weakening. Price action has not formed a higher swing high though, signalling that the downtrend may attempt to continue. The daily moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Price is up-trending on the 4 hour time-frame and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the 4 hour channel support area and around the 4 hour moving averages. If AUDCHF breaks the bullish channel, price may attempt a bearish move lower. A bearish move could find support or reverse around the daily moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6225, 0.6135, 0.6070 and 0.5600.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

AUDJPY – Daily and 4 Hour Charts

AUDJPY Daily Chart
AUDJPY 4 Hourly Chart

As suggested in our last AUD chart analysis, price found resistance around 70.30. AUDJPY has since been bullish though and has swung higher.

Price has closed above a recent swing high on the daily time-frame, suggesting that the recent downtrend has come to an end. The daily moving averages signal indecision – they are moving sideways.

The AUDJPY is up-trending on the 4 hour chart. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the 4 hour trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 70.05, 67.35 and 64.90. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the daily highs at 80.30.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

AUDNZD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDNZD Daily Chart
AUDNZD 4 Hourly Chart

The AUDNZD has been reversing around the horizontal resistance at 1.0830 (as suggested in our last AUD chart analysis).

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The AUDNZD is moving within a large weekly horizontal channel at 1.0035-1.1310. The daily moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0070, 1.0320, 1.0520, 1.0580, 1.0680, 1.0830 and 1.0850.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

AUDUSD – Daily and 4 Hour Charts 

AUDUSD Daily Chart
AUDUSD 4 Hourly Chart

Just like other AUD pairs, AUDUSD has been bullish. Price has not been able to break recent swing highs though, suggesting that the AUDUSD could still downtrend or could become indecisive. The daily moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price is clearly up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The AUDUSD is currently finding resistance around the channel resistance area.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the 4 hour and daily moving averages. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal levels at 0.6660, 0.6560, 0.6370, 0.6265 and 0.5740. A bullish move could find resistance around 0.7015 and 0.7070.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

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