TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – June 04, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD found resistance around 0.6950. Price has been clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase (as also suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames though, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Opportunities to go long may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6870 and 0.6675. A bullish move could continue to find resistance around 0.6950.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.8870, 0.8995 and 0.9050.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The ECB will release a rate statement and announce the official interest rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and move higher. The EURUSD is up-trending and has been moving within a tight bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend could continue. Price has broken key resistance levels on higher time-frames, suggesting that the EURUSD could be up-trending longer-term.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1145, and 1.1090. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.1245 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The ECB will release a rate statement and announce the official interest rate at 1145 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1230 UTC.

GBPUSD

Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the trend support areas. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2595.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD reversed around the 23.6& Fib level and has since been finding support around the recent lows at 1.3485. Price has been down-trending but is currently moving sideways. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. USDCAD is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price could become bullish. Price may range between 1.3485 and 1.3560.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3560, 1.3735 and 1.3820. USDCAD could continue to find support around 1.3485.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

USDCHF reversed around 0.9650 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been down-trending but is now looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9580, 0.9645 and 0.9650.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.80 and 108.45.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

Price has found support around 1696 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is looking indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that GOLD may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1694, 1713 and 1745.

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