TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 28, 2020




AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the bullish channel support area and the longer-term moving average. AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price is moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6575 and 0.6515. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs at 0.6675.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around 0.8995 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). EURGBP is indecisive and ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8885 and the recent highs at 0.8995. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8865, 0.8830 and 0.8815.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has been bullish and has swung above the recent consolidation area. Price is currently finding resistance around 1.1025. Price action has been forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting that EURUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the upside. Price has just broken key resistance on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the upside direction may continue.

Long opportunities could exist if price closes above the 1.1025 area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.0955 and 1.0875. EURUSD may continue to find resistance around the recent highs at 1.1025.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has reversed around the bullish channel support area. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2210 and 1.2165. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2360 and 1.2370 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price is down-trending but is currently stalling and moving sideways. The USDCAD is moving within a tight range at 1.3735-1.3820. The moving averages are bearish ad widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the range resistance area, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3875 and 1.3960. USDCAD may stall or reverse around the range support area before attempting a move lower.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the diagonal resistance are and continues to be indecisive. The USDCHF has been choppy and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the USDCHF could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9640, 0.9650, 0.9710, 0.9735 and 0.9745.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has been finding resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel at 107.35-107.95. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The USDJPY is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 107.20, 106.90 and 106.80.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US preliminary GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the bearish channel support area. Price action has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs and also a bearish channel – GOLD is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1721, 1737 and 1751. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average, around the horizontal support at 1696 and the channel support area.

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