TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 26, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways also. AUDUSD is ranging between the recent swing low at 0.6515 and the recent highs at 0.6600.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 0.6470 and 0.6410.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. EURGBP is starting to look indecisive, suggesting that the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish and are now moving sideways. Price could start ranging between 0.8900 and 0.8995.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8865, 0.8830, 0.8815 and 0.8795.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

Just like other Forex pairs, EURUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.0835, 1.0875, 1.0920 and 1.0995.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD found resistance around the long-term diagonal resistance area. Price has since swung above the diagonal resistance area. GBPUSD is now looking indecisive, just like other Forex pairs. Price is ranging at 1.2165-1.2240. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and have been moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support), around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2280, 1.2320 and 1.2370. A break to the downside could find support around 1.2080.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Price has been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is down-trending within a large bearish channel and is currently attempting a move toward the channel support area. The moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that price may fail to swing lower. USDCAD is nearing key higher time-frame support around 1.3875. Price may become bullish off this support area.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3960 and 1.4040. A bearish move may stall or reverse around 1.3875 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 2100 UTC today.

USDCHF

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 0.9730. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. The USDCHF is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9640, 0.9695, 0.9735, 0.9745 and 0.9775.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

The USDJPY has been bullish and has stalled around the recent highs at 107.95 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is has been up-trending but is currently ranging between 107.35 and 107.95. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and crossing frequently. The USDJPY is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Buying opportunities could exist if price closes above the range resistance area, around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support levels at 107.35, 107.20, 106.90 and 106.80.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding support around the trend support area. Price is now looking indecisive though and is ranging between 1722 and 1737. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the trend support area and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1751 and 1764. A break to the downside could find support around 1701 and 1696.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/