TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 22, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price was bullish and then reversed around 0.6600. The AUDUSD has since formed lower swing highs and is currently forming a lower swing low, suggesting that price could start down-trending. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price could move lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6555 and 0.6600. A bearish move could find support around 0.6470.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed off the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending and is currently moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.8905. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the recent swing high at 0.8995.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The ECB will release monetary policy meeting accounts at 1130 UTC today.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bearish. Price has reversed around higher time-frame resistance and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0835, 1.0880, 1.0920, 1.0995 and 1.1005.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The ECB will release monetary policy meeting accounts at 1130 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has reversed around the diagonal resistance area again (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending but also looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2080, 1.2240, 1.2280, 1.2320 and 1.2370.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the range resistance area. USDCAD has since closed above the range resistance and been bullish (as also suggested). Price is looking indecisive but is also moving within a large bearish channel. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3960, 1.4015, 1.4115 and 1.4125.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price is looking very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. USDCHF is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9640, 0.9670, 0.9695, 0.9725, 0.9745 and 0.9775.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has found support again around the diagonal support area. USDJPY continues to be indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.80, 106.90, 107.20, 107.80 and 107.95.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the diagonal support area and horizontal level at 1722 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the diagonal support and resistance areas, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1696, 1701, 1722, 1751 and 1764.

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