TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 21, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price has swung above the recent consolidation area and is forming higher swing highs and lows, suggesting an uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.6530. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6600.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1345 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1830 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady and price action has formed a bullish channel, all suggesting that the upside direction could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8955, 0.8905 and 0.8865. EURGBP could find resistance around the channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. EURUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady and EURUSD has formed a bullish channel, all confirming the potential upside. Price is at a key resistance on higher time-frames though, signalling that EURUSD may attempt a bearish move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0920 and 1.0880. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0990 and 1.1010.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1345 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1830 UTC.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the longer-term diagonal resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD has been down-trending but is currently looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2080, 1.2280, 1.2320 and 1.2370.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1345 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1830 UTC.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and then found support around 1.3875. Price is now looking indecisive again. The USDCAD is ranging between 1.3875 and 1.3950. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that price may break lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.3970, 1.4015 and 1.4115.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1345 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1830 UTC.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and price action has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the USDCHF could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9670, 0.9695 and 0.9725. A bearish move could find support around 0.9640 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1345 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1830 UTC.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend support area and has been bullish. The USDJPY is up-trending and is currently attempting to swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the buying momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 107.20 and 106.90. The USDJPY may find resistance around 107.95.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US manufacturing PMI figure will be released at 1345 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1830 UTC.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are very tight – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1701, 1722, 1729, 1751 and 1764.

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