TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 20, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.6565. The AUDUSD continues to be choppy and indecisive. Recent price action has formed a higher swing high though, suggesting that the AUDUSD could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous resistance at 0.6470. Price could continue to find resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.6570.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has started ranging and has been reversing off the range support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP had been up-trending but is currently moving sideways between 0.8905 and 0.8955. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price may start up-trending again.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1330 UTC today.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD continued to move higher and be bullish. Price is now in a retrace move. The EURUSD has formed a higher swing high, suggesting that price could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.0880. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0970 and 1.1005.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD has been moving sideways and is looking indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the long-term diagonal resistance area and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2080, 1.2280, 1.2320, 1.2370 and 1.2455.

The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1330 UTC today.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has reversed around 1.3860. USDCAD has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. USDCAD is currently in a retrace move.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3970 and 1.4015. USDCAD could continue to find support around 1.3865.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. USDCHF is moving within a large horizontal channel at 0.9670-0.9745.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area. USDJPY could stall or reverse around the highs at 107.95.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

GOLD has been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and is currently attempting a new swing high. GOLD is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the upside direction may continue. The moving averages are tightening though and are starting to move sideways, signalling market indecision.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1729 and 1722. A bullish move may find resistance and even reverse around the recent highs at 1764.

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