TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 19, 2020




AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD closed above the horizontal channel resistance area and has since been bullish. As also suggested, price is now finding resistance around 0.6565. AUDUSD has become indecisive again – price is looking choppy. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6470 and 0.6565. If AUDUSD closes above 0.6565, price may attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP reversed around the shorter-term moving average and swung higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. EURGBP is forming a horizontal channel at 0.8905-0.8955 though, suggesting market indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, if price closes above 0.8955 and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8905, 0.8865 and 0.8830. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish. EURUSD is above the recent consolidation area, signalling that price may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish movnig averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0880 and 1.0840.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the longer-term moving average. GBPUSD has since been bullish and has swung above the recent bullish channel, suggesting that the downtrend could be over. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel resistance (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.2240, 1.2320 and 1.2370.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

The USDCAD closed below the range support area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is now finding support around 1.3905 (as also suggested). USDCAD is looking choppy but has been forming lower swing highs and lows, suggesting a potential downtrend.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.3970 and 1.4015. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 1.3905 and 1.3860.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF was rejected at the range resistance area. Price is indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed a clear range at 0.9670-0.9745. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9775 and 0.9800.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has swung above the range resistance area and has formed a bullish channel, signalling that the USDJPY may start up-trending. The moving averages are suggesting market indecision though – they have been crossing frequently.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 106.90 and 106.80. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 107.75.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move higher. GOLD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1722. A bullish move could find resistance around the longer-term moving average and around the recent highs at 1764.

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