TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 18, 2020


AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and has reversed around the horizontal support at 0.6410. The AUDUSD continues to move within a bearish channel. Recent price action has been choppy though and the AUDUSD is currently moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are starting to move sideways. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 0.6410-0.6470. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that the AUDUSD could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the AUDUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6525. A break to the downside could find support around 0.6375 and around the bearish channel support area. Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bullish and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8865 and 0.8830. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8950.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future trend direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1.0775, 1.0835 and 1.0880. If the EURUSD moves below 1.0775, price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. The GBPUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the downside direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2240 and 1.2320. A bearish move may find support around the bearish channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has becoming indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. USDCAD is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.4015 and the horizontal resistance at 1.4125.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.4170. A break to the downside could find support around 1.3970.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to find resistance around 0.9745. USDCHF is ranging between 0.9670-0.9745. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9775 and 0.9795.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, USDJPY has become indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 106.80 and the horizontal resistance at 107.35. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 107.75.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Long

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been bullish and has moved higher. Price has broken above the recent bullish channel resistance area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the uptrend may continue. GOLD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to potentially more upside.

Long opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel resistance area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1736 and 1722.

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