TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 14, 2020




AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around 0.6525. Price has since been bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the downside momentum may continue. The AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames also, adding confidence that price may become bearish.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6525, 0.6555 and 0.6565. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6375 and 0.6340.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish and has been rejected at the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending and moving within an aggressive bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8810 and 0.8795. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.8865 and around the channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1030 UTC today.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1.0875 and around the bullish channel resistance area. The EURUSD is up-trending slightly and is moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.0790, 1.0775 and 1.0735. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages, around the horizontal resistance at 1.0880 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the trend resistance area and has since swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area ad around the horizontal levels at 1.2250, 1.2320, 1.2370 and 1.2455. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The Governor of the Bank of England will speak at 1030 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction may continue. USDCAD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.4015 and 1.3970. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the recent highs at 1.4170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Governor of the BOC will speak at 1430 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has moved out of the bearish channel and is now looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.9670 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9740.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.9775 and 0.9795. A break to the downside could find support around 0.9595.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be bearish but overall is looking indecisive. USDJPY is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.60 and 107.75.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish. GOLD is up-trending within a large bullish channel but is also looking choppy and a little indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1710, 1701 and 1696.

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