TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 13, 2020




AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6295, 0.6340, 0.6375, 0.6435, 0.6525, 0.6555 and 0.6565.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8850. EURGBP continues to be indecisive but recent price action has formed a higher swing high and a bullish channel, suggesting that EURGBP may start up-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bullish and widening.

Buying opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8810 and 0.87.95. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 0.8850 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD has reversed off the horizontal resistance at 1.0875 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive but price action has formed a bullish channel, signalling potential upside. The moving averages are tight moving sideways, suggesting continued market indecision. EURUSD is indecisive on higher time-frames also, providing no indication of future trend direction.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.0790 and 1.0775. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.0875 and around the channel resistance area.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GBPUSD has found support around 1.2250. Price is around a key support area and looking bearish, signalling that GBPUSD may move lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downside. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a potential bearish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2370 and 1.2455. GBPUSD may continue to find support around 1.2250.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, signalling that the USDCAD could start up-trending. The moving averages are still crossing frequently though and are tight, suggesting indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current upside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support at 1.3970. A strong bullish move could find resistance around 1.4170 and 1.4195.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has formed a bearish channel – the USDCHF may be starting to downtrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9740 and 0.9775. A bearish move may find support around 0.9670 and around the channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 106.95 and 106.60. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 107.75 and 107.85.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1300 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has become indecisive. Price is still moving within the bullish channel though and GOLD is up-trending on higher time-frames, all signalling that price may move higher. GOLD has formed a tight horizontal channel at 1695-1710.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1685 and 1672. A break to the upside may find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1722 and 1736.

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