TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 12, 2020


***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

The AUDUSD has been bearish. Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6375, 0.6555 and 0.6565.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURGBP reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8810. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8675, 0.8690, 0.8710, 0.8795, 0.8810 and 0.8850.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0775, 1.0870 and 1.0890.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around 1.2285. Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm this – they are tight. Price is ranging between 1.2285 and 1.2470.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.2250. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2610.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, USDCAD is indecisive and lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that USDCAD may attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3860, 1.3905, 1.4170 and 1.4195.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF 

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF is also indecisive and lacking trend direction. The moving averages once again confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9685, 0.9775 and 0.9795.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.35, 106.95 and 106.60. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 107.75 and 107.85.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the bullish channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is up-trending within a bullish channel. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential upside. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

Long opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support at 1685. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1722 and 1736.

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