TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 11, 2020

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price moved higher but then found resistance around 0.6565. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. Price action has formed a higher swing higher though and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the AUDUSD could start up-trending.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 0.6465. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance area at 0.6565.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. The EURGBP is currently ranging between the horizontal levels at 0.8710 and 0.8770.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.8690 and 0.8675. A break to the upside may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8810 and 0.8850.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0775, 1.0870, 1.0890 and 1.1005.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD reversed around 1.2470 and has since been bearish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has become indecisive again. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2250, 1.2285, 1.2455 and 1.2470.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

Just like other USD pairs, USDCAD is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3860, 1.3905, 1.4000, 1.4025 and 1.4170.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

Price is indecisive. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9595, 0.9685, 0.9775 and 0.9795.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY has been bullish. Price action is forming higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting that USDJPY could start up-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they have crossed bullish and are widening.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.95 and 106.60. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 107.35 and 107.90.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

GOLD continues to be choppy and indecisive. Price action has recently formed a higher swing high though and a bullish channel, signalling that GOLD may start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening and price is up-trending on higher time-frames – confirming the potential upside.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support level at 1685. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and the horizontal resistance levels at 1722 and 1736.

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