TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 07, 2020

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD broke below the range support area and then found support at 0.6375. Price continues to be indecisive though and is now ranging between 0.6375 and 0.6465. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.6565. A break to the downside may find support around 0.6340 and 0.6295.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The RBA will release a monetary policy statement at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging on higher time-frames between 0.8305 and 0.9320.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8675, 0.8690, 0.8765, 0.8810 and 0.8850.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 1.0810. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack clear market direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is indecisive on higher time-frames also, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0810 and 1.0890.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD

Price reversed around 1.2310 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD has been bearish and is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price action has also formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue. The GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the selling momentum could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2395, 1.2405 and 1.2470. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2310 and 1.2250.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDCAD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. USDCAD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential upside.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.4025 and 1.4000. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.4170, 1.4195 and 1.4245.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF

USDCHF has continued to be bullish but also continues to look indecisive. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that USDCHF could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance and recent highs at 0.9795.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price continued to be bearish and move lower. USDJPY is down-trending and is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 106.40, 106.95 and 107.35. A bearish move may find support around the shorter-term moving average and the recent swing low at 106.00.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US unemployment claims figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD

Price has been bearish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. GOLD is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1665, 1672, 1693, 1710 and 1718.

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