TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 06, 2020

***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the longer-term moving average and the 50.0% Fib level. AUDUSD is now looking indecisive and has formed a tight range at 0.6420-0.6465. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that AUDUSD could break lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.6565. A break to the downside could find support around 0.6375, 0.6340 and 0.6295.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. An Australian trade balance figure will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and moving sideways. EURGBP is ranging on higher time-frames (0.8305-0.9320).

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8675 and 0.8810.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been finding support around 1.0810. Price continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision. EURUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no technical indication of future trend direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.0735, 1.0810 and 1.0890.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 1.2310, 1.2395, 1.2405, 1.2470, 1.2610 and 1.2645.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today.

NZDUSD

Just like other USD pairs, the NZDUSD has become indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. Price action has formed a tight horizontal channel at 0.6035-0.6075 and price is moving within the channel. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The NZDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the NZDUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around 0.6165. A break to the downside of the channel could stall or reverse around 0.6010, 0.5995, 0.5980 and 0.5920.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly slashed it’s official rate to 0.25% (a record low). Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The country was already in recession before the COVID-19 pandemic.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today. New Zealand inflation expectations will be released at 0300 UTC.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average. The USDCAD recently forming a higher swing high, suggesting that price may start up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace move. The USDCAD is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to the potential upside on the 1 hour. The 1 hour moving averages are tightening though, suggesting that the USDCAD may fail to swing higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the horizontal level at 1.4000 and the Fib levels at 50.0% and 61.8%. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.4150, 1.4195 and 1.4245.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today.

USDCHF

The USDCHF has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that the USDCHF could become bearish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9800, 0.9765 and 0.9675.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today.

USDJPY

USDJPY has been bearish. Price has moved below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, all signalling that the USDJPY may start down-trending.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 106.40, 106.95 and 107.35.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1215 UTC today.

XAUUSD

Just like most Forex pairs, GOLD has become indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that GOLD could move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1672, 1693, 1710, 1718 and 1738.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/