TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 04, 2020




***Coronavirus fears are driving markets – cash fleeing to safe-haven currencies (CHF, JPY, USD). Stock markets down***

AUDUSD

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has moved lower. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are widening, signalling that the downside momentum could continue. AUDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that price could continue to move lower.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6435 and 0.6565. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.6340, 0.6295 and 0.6260.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish but continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the continued market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. EURGBP is moving within a weekly horizontal channel at 0.8300-0.9325.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8675, 0.8750, 0.8765, 0.8800 and 0.8850.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. EURUSD continues to be indecisive on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price could also become indecisive on the 1 hour time-frame.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0890 and 1.0810. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs at 1.1005.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has swung below the 1 hour moving averages and trend support, suggesting that the recent uptrend may now be over. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling potential market indecision. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may move lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2610 and 1.2645. A bearish move may find support around 1.2395, 1.2385 and 1.2305.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD

NZDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the uptrend is over – price has been bearish. NZDUSD has moved below the recent bullish channel support area and the moving averages have crossed bearish, all signalling that price could start down-trending. NZDUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to potential downside direction.

Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6075 and 0.6165. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal support levels at 0.5995, 0.5980 and 0.5920.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly slashed it’s official rate to 0.25% (a record low). Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The country was already in recession before the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has swung higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is forming a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to possible upside direction on the 1 hour.

Long opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal level at 1.4000. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.4195 and 1.4245.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bearish and has reversed around the recent lows of 0.9600. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9675 and 0.9715. The USDCHF could continue to find support around 0.9595.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 106.40 and the horizontal resistance at 107.35.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 107.90 and 108.05.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. GOLD is up-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price could soon become bullish.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1718 and 1738. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1672 and 1665.

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